"Worst-case scenario builders consistently underestimate the statistical probability of separate bad things happening simultaneously, as the result of the same underlying causes."

So how is it, despite that sophistication, awareness, and preparedness, that the Fukshima Dai-ichi has nonetheless exceeded worst-case thinking? Here, the story is reminiscent of Three Mile Island and Chernob and the message seems to be the same: Worst-case scenario builders consistently underestimate the statistical probability of separate bad things happening simultaneously, as the result of the same underlying causes. As the TMI accident evolved, the nation was mesmerized by the buildup of hydrogen gas in the reactor vessel (a prospect no member of the general public had ever heard of before), and the danger of its exploding. Subsequent post mortems found, in addition, that a substantial fraction of the reactor core melted during the accident. Had it melted through the bottom of the vessel, vast amount of radioactivity would have found its way into the Susquehanna River and Chesapeake Bay, poisoning their waters permanently, for all practical purposes.

(Sent from Flipboard)

"customers usually aren’t very good at describing solutions..." ☛ Michelle Harris

The bottom line is that customers usually aren’t very good at describing solutions. But when properly asked, they’re very good at describing their needs – what they like, what they don’t like, what makes their lives hard or easy, what they wish for, and what they’re trying to get done. And after all, it’s not the customer’s job to come up with the solution – that’s the developer’s job! Their job is just to articulate their needs.

Posted @ Friday, October 16, 2009 10:07 AM by Michelle Harris

via blog.vovici.com