CRYPTOCHAOS

As more details of last Thursday's collapse become clear, there is less evidence to suggest a "fat-finger" data-entry error caused the collapse. Instead, the picture is one of a highly rare confluence of events, some linked, some unrelated, that exposed weaknesses in the stock market large and small. Within five minutes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 700 points as trading seized up in individual stocks such as Procter & Gamble and even exchange-traded mutual funds.

"It did point out that there is a structural flaw," said Gus Sauter, chief investment officer at Vanguard Group. "We have to think through how you preserve the immediacy and yet preserve the liquidity."
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This diversity has made stock-trading cheaper, a plus for both institutional and individual investors. It has also made it more unruly and difficult to ensure an orderly market...

“There are a whole other group of folks who play this game,” Mr. Tabb said. “They put low limit orders into the market for this exact purpose — for when the markets go into free fall.”
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Unfortunately for those investors, the exchanges have rules in place to cancel or rescind any trades that are associated with erroneous or unusual trading activity.

“If there is an order that gets printed and it is so far away from the market that it was clearly wrong, the exchanges have the right to break it and, in fact, they do it fairly often,” Mr. Tabb said. “It just doesn’t happen with this magnitude.”

On Friday, the Nasdaq market said it would cancel all trades that had occurred in the 20-minute period between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. on Thursday that were 60 percent higher or lower than the last trade at 2:40. “This decision,” the exchange noted on its Web site, “cannot be appealed.”

We are proposing to require the filing of a computer program (the “waterfall computer program,” as defined in the proposed rule) of the contractual cash flow provisions of the securities in the form of downloadable source code in Python, a commonly used computer programming language that is open source and interpretive. The computer program would be tagged in XML and required to be filed with the Commission as an exhibit. Under our proposal, the filed source code for the computer program, when downloaded and run (by loading it into an open “Python” session on the investor’s computer), would be required to allow the user to programmatically input information from the asset data file that we are proposing to require as described above. We believe that, with the waterfall computer program and the asset data file, investors would be better able to conduct their own evaluations of ABS and may be less likely to be dependent on the opinions of credit rating agencies.

Hmmm.... sounds like the SEC want's unit tests the users can run. I guess they don't trust the ratings agencies.

About 4,000 trades were broken on Thursday after being identified as clearly erroneous as per exchange rules, Mr. Niederauer said, and the wild fluctuations were certain to prompt more scrutiny of high-frequency trading from regulators.

"We as an industry have to say how much is too much of this technology," Mr. Niederauer said.

"This was a massive liquidation panic," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, a Freehold, N.J., technical-research firm.

As the losses accelerated, there were little to no "buy" orders left in many stocks and other assets, causing a plunge that saw some securities spiral to near zero. "You just blew through everything," he said.

A number of high-frequency firms closing down in the midst of a sharp market drop can "widen markets out substantially," said Jamie Selway, managing director of New York broker White Cap Trading.

High-frequency firms have in recent years become central to how the market operates, growing to account for about two-thirds of daily market volume, according to industry estimates.

The firms use high-powered computers to send "buy" and "sell" orders to the market at rapid speeds. High-frequency traders have said part of the value they add to markets is the liquidity they bring—being at the ready to swiftly complete a trade. Some of these firms have said that, were it not for them, the 2008 market declines would have been worse.

When I started my second company, in 1988, also in Silicon Valley -- the industry was approaching a level of maturity that, in tech, warns of a looming implosion. I was too young and inexperienced to know this, but the signs were everywhere. A few years before if you had a good idea, you could ship a product, promote it, build a user base, and find liquidity. Now the dominant companies had grown so big they were starting to choke the ecosystem. And the entrepreneurs who were showing up were less the bright-eyed engineers with big ideas, and more of the carpetbagging MBAs with pyramid schemes. Gotta say the VCs typically went for the MBAs. The era of the engineer, if it wasn't over, was certainly waning. 

All of these things are vying for attention and evangelism. Some of them are great, some of them are stupid, but they’re all clubbed together under this vague banner of ‘The Open Web’. It sets expectations and demands from developers, who are all the while being wowed by the efficiency and quality of proprietary application frameworks like Flash and Cocoa.